By Shivaji Uphadaya

On Constitution Assembly Elections and Results:

The overall success of the Constitutional Assembly Elections held on the 10^th of April 2008 was a break through towards the opening of a new Nepal. More than 60 percent voters’ turn out demonstrated their fearless participation and extreme desire to see their country in peace. There was only one booth in Saptari, where no voters turned up due to the threatening issued by the leader of the Tarai Jantantrik Mukti Morcha, Jwala Singh, who comes from that village, Trikaul. The logistics and organization of the voting mechanism was very transparent and planning of each booth having no more than 1100 -1300 or so voters made it easier to finish voting way ahead of time.

The unexpected results surprised and dismayed many political pundits across the globe. Equally, it was a shock and severe blow not only to the major political parties, but also to donor countries, our neighbor and the superpower countries. UML thought that they would get an absolute majority due to merger of their split party a few years back. Nepali Congress was devouring on their sure shot expectations that UML voters would split towards CPNM. CPNM also did not expect that they would get so many of the assembly seats including the proportionate ones. The terai parties (FORUM, Terai Madhesh Loktantrik Party and Sadbhawana) also came out cumulatively as a fourth force in the new political arena. 

Looking at the assembly election results (see page3), 9 parties and two independents constitute 240 seats and 25 parties constitute 335 proportionate seat. The Election Commission has with- held 1Direct seat under question, which totals only 29 seats for the MJF. 26 remaining seats are to be nominated by the Cabinet to bring a total of 601 seats for the Constituent Assembly.

Analysis of the unexpected results:

Lack of timely planning and analysis of the situation, prior to election, especially on the part of the major parties, has brought this surprise. I guess that none of the two major parties ever did question or anticipate, if they would loose and if so, how? No home work on what could be the reasons and scenario, if they lost. The actions of the CPNM in all remote terai and hill districts and use of all techniques  through their cadres to attract or compel their voters made them winner and ahead of all parties. Nomination of candidates covering more ethnic groups and number of women representation; attractive slogans; physical, mental, and verbal torture; and assurances of property and job rights to their cadres all made the election strategies work very well. If these parties could have identified CPNM’s election strategies, it would have at least made them expect the unexpected results making it lesser painful.

Efforts of the giants like India, USA, UK and other democratic countries during the 19 days of the peoples movement might have made it look like quite genuine on their part however, sending wrong delegates like Mr. D. Singh from India, a relative of the Royal family; quick acceptance by India, USA and other countries of King Gyanendra’s first  proposal, and frequent statements made by U.S. Ambassador, Mr. Moriarty, added all the negative impressions against. People in general viewed these actions as meddling in others’ business. The current quieter diplomacy however, under the new U.S. Ambassador to Nepal, Ms. Powell, has been helpful and to an extent successful to decrease the annoyance on the part of the general population against US government.

Current status on the formation of a new Government of Nepal:

Be gone is now be gone, but the dilemma still prevails as to which party would or should make the government. Reading the on- going efforts by parties to see if Girija led government can be formed,  one can speculate one of the reasons why there is fear of flying under the would be an autocratic republican communist state, if Maoists party led the government. Discussions are on among the 7 parties on whether there should be a President as Head of State and that Maoists led the government, a check and balance approach. The 7 parties never should ignore the Terai parties to involve them in the current political process.

The Voters have distinctly asked all parties to go together in making this transition successful. CPNM has the highest number of seats however, it does not have absolute majority. It eventually does have a stronger voice asking to accept and follow the protocol of the election results. It wants to announce Nepal a Republic on the first day of the Assembly Meeting. The Interim Constitution dictates that it would require two thirds of the majority to pass any major resolutions and the new constitution. It is yet uncertain what would be the Terai parties’ stand, as they do not want to join the government, on the future role of the King, let alone their stand on one autonomous Madhesh Pradesh. It is also uncertain if King Gyanendra will go away or remain with dignity. In general, people would not shade tears for him due to the Royal family massacre before he came to power and atrocities of his government that he chaired.

It is for certain that the CPNM will lead the new government or else people fear CPNM cadre’s wrath against them.  CPNM badly wants to be accepted by the powerful countries. Specially, they would like to see their party deleted from the terrorist list of the US government. One can guess that the US government would want to have CPNM accept and demonstrate freedom of speech, human rights, free market economy, property right, rule of law and practices and so on following the democratic principles.

Role of U.S. Government and Reopening of Peace Corps in Nepal:

If the US Government supports the new government under CPNM and deletes them from the terrorist list, which it should and should have accepted former US President Carter’s advice. The U.S. Government should not forget to bring back Peace Corps in Nepal, one of its most successful missions in this country. Role of PCVs in making new Nepal would be very effective and useful in continuing its cultural exchange, building friendship and providing technical assistance.  We know that it takes normally one year to bring any group of PCVs in any new post. Peace Corps should be allowed to conduct a detailed assessment process identifying areas of needs, possible sites and sectors for placements. On the basis of its past contributions, Peace Corps Volunteers should not be deprived of its further assistance in the making of a new Nepal. Assuming two years of work by the Constitution Assembly Members to come up with a new constitution, it is important for the U.S Government to be proactive and consider strongly reopening Peace Corps in Nepal by 2010.

Shivaji Upadhyay

Coordinator

Former Peace Corps Nepal Employees Committee,

Kathmandu, Nepal

7May 2008

Nepal CA Polls Result (2008) last updated May 4, 2008)

26 remaining seats are to be nominated by the Cabinet to bring a total of 601 seats for the Constituent Assembly.

http://www.nepalnews.com.np/election/vote1.php